current book project
Autocratic Intelligence:
How Modern Dictatorships Are Getting Smarter
Princeton University Press, June 2027 · Notify me when it’s out
This book uncovers and explains a global trend among modern autocracies: they are getting smarter. As of 2020, one in four cabinet ministers across all authoritarian regimes had both studied at a Western university and finished a graduate degree, a nearly threefold increase over the past fifty years. This trend stands in sharp contrast not only to the popular image of dictators flanked by sycophantic cronies, but also to canonical work which has long held that autocrats favor loyalty over competence. Far from fearing expertise, I argue that modern dictators surround themselves with it, increasingly relying on elite, Western-educated technocrats to help them maintain legitimacy and social stability in a world of rising citizen expectations. The most striking case is Putin-era Russia, where technocrats trained at Western institutions and multinational firms have helped rescue the regime from the shocks of crushing sanctions and a disastrous war.
This reliance, however, comes with risk: the most capable individuals are not only wary of joining corrupt and violent regimes, but they may also prove difficult to control and even defect once inside the state. How do authoritarian regimes recruit and entrust technocrats with meaningful authority without jeopardizing regime stability? To investigate this puzzle, I combine an in-depth study of Russia—drawing on brand-new data on over 1,500 top officials under Putin, surveys and elite interviews—with analysis of cross-national data on 103 authoritarian regimes and comparative case studies. The book shows how dictators have developed sophisticated strategies to reward, monitor, and ensure the continued loyalty of the technocrats they require. When given power, technocrats then strengthen and prolong authoritarian rule by helping stabilize economies and modernize the state and its coercive apparatus. By shifting the lens to the individuals who choose to work for dictatorships, I offer a new framework for understanding authoritarian resilience in the 21st century.
Forthcoming from Princeton University Press, June 2027. Read the Introduction!